WitView foresees 3D adoption as potentially rising from 1.5% to 8.3% next year, and the unit shipments will be multiplied from 2.7 million units this year to 19 million units.
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WitsView, a research division of TrendForce, is weighing in on future 3D, LED-backlit LCD sales in a newsletter being circulated today.
WitsView warns that while LCD TV has grown rapidly in sales since 2006, its household popularization rate in Japan, advanced countries in Europe and North America is approaching the peak now that the replacement of CRT with LCD TV has gradually come to an end.
[Phil Lelyveld insertion: line diagram Legend – green=?, red=monitor, blue=TV / pie chart Legend – blue=shutter glasses LCD screen, orange = shutter glasses Plasma Display Panel (PDP), green=polarized glasses, yellow=eye-naked]
The industry is hoping that new technologies that promote a demonstrably improved picture (like LED-backlit LCD) and dramatic new capabilities (most obvious, 3D) can somehow shake loose replacement dollars from consumers that could easily see the value proposition of the flat panel, and how it solves décor problems.
WitsView pegs the penetration rate of LED TV as around 18% (34 million units) in 2010. “However, with the improvement of the cost structure, the price of both LED BLU and LED TV panel is projected to drop substantially in 2011 compared to that of this year,” states the research firm, “which is expected to further boost the demand. It is estimated that the penetration rate of LED TV will potentially arrive at 43% next year, or 94 million units.”
The development of LED TV will have to solve the light guide plate (LGP) supply problem in 2011, which, based on WitsView’s research, “will basically become softer in 2011.”
However, WitsView warns that the recent sales of LED products was lower than expected, and orders for LGP dropped substantially, “so plate and material suppliers had to revise the utilization rate downward, which caused the unredeemable loss of capacity. Once the demand for LED TV panels starts to heat up in 2Q11, and surges in 2H11, LGP supply may not be able to fulfill the market demand.”
WitsView’s projection for the penetration rate of 3D TV is less qualified: it foresees 3D adoption as potentially rising from 1.5% to 8.3% next year, and the unit shipments will be multiplied from 2.7 million units this year to 19 million units.
“In the various and indefinite development of 3D technology, shutter glasses, having the best performance so far, will come to be the mainstream next year, and its ratio will be up to 81%,” says the firm, adding that with the renewal frequency, PDP is likely to follow 3D TV’s footstep and regain its share in this niche market.
Plasma is therefore forecast to snag 28% of the 3D TV market adopting shutter glasses. In terms of other minority 3D technology, due to the halved vertical resolution as well as the limited supply, the ratio of polarized glasses adoption may merely reach 17% in 2011 even though the viewing experience with polarized glasses is more comfortable than that with shutter glasses, opines WitsView.
The naked-eye 3D display (that doesn’t require glasses), the Holy Grail for all players in the game, is being held back by both cost and technical issues. WitsView accordingly projects its market share as no more than 2% in 2011, adding that this will be mostly on 26″ and below sizes.
There’s a reason besides cost issues why the first no-glasses 3D TVs will be on the small side: any side-to-side movement on the part of the viewer would produce annoying crosstalk interference.
For more information, visit: www.witsview.com
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