[ars technica]

Every graphical and technical advance the game industry has seen from Pong to Crysis has been a small step toward the end goal of a real-time, photorealistic 3D world that is truly indistinguishable from a real-world scene. Speaking at the DICE Summit Thursday, Epic Games founder and programmer Tim Sweeney examined the speed and direction of computing improvements and determined that we “might expect, over the course of our lifetime, we’d get to amounts of computing power that come very close to simulating reality.”

The necessary bounds for true photorealism are set by the physical limits of the human eye, Sweeney explained, which can only process the equivalent of a 30 megapixel image at about 70 frames per second. Given current trends, monitor display technology should be able to handle that level of detail for a small area in just a few more generations. Projecting that level of detail across a larger, 90 degree field of vision would take an 8000 x 6000 pixel display, which is still quite far off but “within sight,” Sweeney said.  …

But simply pushing polygons isn’t enough to get true realism. The ability to trace the subtle interplay of light on various surfaces is also key to creating a realistic scene. …

Outside of raw computing and algorithmic power, the future may also hold further revelations in the way we interact with virtual environments. Sweeney pointed to upcoming Sony sunglasses with transparent lenses that allow for hands-free image projection in a way that hasn’t seemed cool since the ’80s. He also predicted that increasing scarcity in real goods may drive up the value of increasingly realistic virtual goods, to the point where the market rivals the $25 trillion worldwide trade in real estate.  …

See the full story here: http://arstechnica.com/gaming/news/2012/02/how-close-are-we-to-truly-photorealistic-real-time-games.ars