The way many observers of TV trends are observing lately, you might believe 3D was dead as a doornail.
You can understand why. Millions of people were predicted to buy 3D television sets last year. Just above one million actually did, according to final 2010 findings of the Consumer Electronics Association and related parties. The millions of people not buying didn’t because they’re not enchanted with the idea of watching 3D through glasses–either cumbersome to use or afraid using them will cause headaches, nausea or worse. Or, if they could adapt to glasses, there wasn’t enough 3D content worth their while to watch regularly.
Apart from this general conclusion from observers, there’s the internal ying/yang within the content creator universe. If the programming doesn’t get generated, chances are 3D viewership won’t grow. However, if the number of 3D-using TV households doesn’t grow, it’s not worthwhile to produce content.
Admittedly, it’s tempting to label 3D dead as a doornail. Tempting, and I’m not breaking bread with the supporters of this position yet.
How come I’m not? First, there are content producers willing in recent weeks to sidestep the ying/yang and put their belief in 3D’s ultimate success as a medium at risk. In a 48-hour span, Discovery Communications, Sony and IMAX launched their long-awaited 3net 3D channel, with a heavy dose of original programs made just for that service, followed by ESPN 3D going from live events here and there to 24/7. What’s more, ESPN 3D added live events to their lineup that were not in their original game plan of 100 in the first year of existence, starting with a Friday Night Fights ESPN2 boxing simulcast the Friday after going full-time.
Then a week later, way under anyone’s radar screen, Comcast (just getting its feet wet acquiring NBC Universal) started Xfinity 3D, a 24/7 event channel. First night attractions: the live NHL Heritage Classic game from Canada simulcast on Versus, followed by a Kings Of Leon concert supplied by MTV. No one, repeat, no one, saw this coming from Comcast, much less coming so soon after bringing NBC Universal into its fold.
This wave of activity last month tells me that there’s plenty of interest still out there in making 3D work, and with a greater array of programming worth checking out, the audience will come through. Another sign that 3D isn’t flatlining: we’ve yet to get a wave of anecdotes across the country of people getting sick from watching 3D on a sustained basis. Comprehensive research from ESPN and other places released since last fall suggests the chances of such a wave happening are slim.
Third, until glasses-free 3D comes along, we may get the next best thing this year–glasses compatible with most or all 3D sets, no matter who makes them. Monster Cable is among the companies putting these glasses in the marketplace, and adoption should make the probability of health adversity from 3D slimmer. Also, we may get glasses-free 3D sets sooner than the five years or so many experts predict. Toshiba has a model available in Japan, and for sure there’s a push behind the scenes to get something workable before U.S. customers much quicker. Newcomers like 3D Fusion may or may not be the solution, yet they are out there nevertheless.
Beyond all that, remember this: before the start of this still-new century, high-definition TV was in the same doornail position some put 3D in now. Few HD sets in action and few people watching what was available…and that was after decades of perfecting the technology and government standard-setting. Some brave souls like Mark Cuban, ESPN and Discovery Communications reached for a limb with channels like HD Net, ESPN HD and Discovery HD Theater. Cable and satellite operators reached out with them, followed by consumer electronics retailers. This year, more than half of all TV homes have at least one HD set, every TV network has an HD feed and every new TV network makes it their business to launch in HD. Along the way, the public clicked into the notion that HD is worth watching.
There’s still time for 3D to be like HD.
Some brave content souls have made their stand. Let’s see if this doornail can be pulled out, instead of hammered shut.
Published: March 2, 2011 at 04:03 PM GMT
Last Updated: March 2, 2011 at 04:03 PM GMT
Simon Applebaum is host/producer of Tomorrow Will Be Televised, the Internet radio/podcast-distributed program about the TV scene. Tomorrow runs live Mondays/Fridays at 3 p.m. Eastern time, noon Pacific time, on BlogTalk Radio (www.blogtalkradio.com), on 24/7 replay (www.blogtalkradio.com/simonapple04) and podcast (ITunes.com and 17 other Web sites arranged by Sonibyte. Teachers and students can access the program through Cable In The Classroom (www.ciconline.org). Have a question/reaction, or want to sponsor Tomorrow Will Be Televised on Internet radio or podcast? E-mail simonapple04@yahoo.com.
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