by Phil Lelyveld
At this morning’s Variety 3D Summit, Screen Digest senior analyst Charlotte Jones provided a wealth of information about the current state of 3D content, exhibition, and CE markets.
Content
There have been a total of 60 major theatrical 3D releases since 2005, generating $5.5B from 3D screens.
20 3D TV channels have launched, including 5 in the US, 4 in Japan, 2 in Japan, and 1 each in the UK, France, Netherlands, Austria, Germany, Russia, Czech Republic, Estonia, and Korea.
Theatrical screen count
By the end of 2010 there will be 22,400 digital screens worldwide, including 6,500 in Europe and 5,000 in Asia. 60% of the digital screens are 3D capable today.
20% of the 110,000 screens worldwide will have converted to digital. 80% of the new digital screens will be 3D-capabile.
15% of the screens in the top 12 markets are 3D-enabled. Those markets account for 80% of global revenues.
3D theatrical technologies
North America, RealD accounts for 85%, with Xpand and Dolby at 6% each and Master Image accounting for about 3%
Europe: RealD has a 45% market share, Xpand and Dolby have about 20% each, and Master Image has the remaining 10%
China now has 1,200 3D screens (primarily Xpand), France has 900 (split between RealD and Xpand), and Germany has 590 (split between RealD and MasterImage)
Indigenous culture
Europe’s indigenous film industry has been impacted by the rise of 3D, with a 14% revenue drop from local films in 2009. There is now a push to local production of 3D content.
3D ticket up-charge
Premium pricing varies from a high of 85% increase for 3D in Mexico, to 60% in China and Russia, 35-40% across Europe and US/Canada, 22% in Japan and Korea, and 10-15% in India.
Consumer 3D
Screen Digest projects that by 2014 28% of US households will have a 3D TV. 110M 3DTVs will be sold worldwide in 2014, with North America leading the way.
That assumes that consumers see 3D as a key feature in their next TV purchase. 25 of the 60 3D titles released theatrically this year will become available this year. But because of studio / 3DTV manufacturer bundling deals, only 3 (three) feature titles and 3 (three) documentaries will be on the shelves and available to the general consumer. Screen Digest project that in 2014 US consumers will spend $753m on buying 3D BD. If more titles are released this year, regardless of 3DTV sales, that number will go up. 3D Blu-ray discs are backward compatible to 2D displays. Consumers with 3D discs in their collection will eventually buy 3DTV in order to take advantage of the 3D content that they already own.
Jeffrey Katzenberg, CEO and Pres of DreamWorks Animation SKG, noted that bad 3D can turn a bad movie into a painful movie. The greatest legitimate complaint about 3D is the brightness of the image. This is a temporary issue that will be solved. In 12-18 months there will be laser-based projection systems. They cut power consumption by >50%, so theatre owners will be motivated to convert. Silver screens and glasses are also being improved.
As for the up-charge for a 3D theatre ticket; 6 of the top 10 movies this year were 3D releases. His internal research shows that there is NO pushback on the up-charge. Consumer think the value is there for top films. Bad conversion jeopardizes the trend. Conversion is not “like sending a car through a car wash.” It is a creative process; it takes time, money, and talent. The public will pay a premium price for a premium experience.
By the end of this year, there will be 21,000 3D screens worldwide, and 30,000 screens by the end of 2011.
Jeffrey is working with Oakley on 3D glasses. Oakley is about to release glasses that eliminate glare, and are much lighter (attenuate much less light due to tinting) .
Mr. Katzenberg said that the international market is much more aggressive than the US when it comes to the 3D theatre build-out. By 4Q 2010 China will have 2020 3D screens, France will have 1580, Germany 820 , UK 800, and Italy 700, for example. There will be 35,000 3D screens in China within 3 years, he said.
The Drivers in Creative: 3D Content and Creative Story Telling
Steven Poster, President of the International Cinematographers Guild, explained that “3D really is a different language.” Sony’s Buzz Hays noted the “it is the painter, not the paintbrush.” The Sony Technology Center has worked with the ICG and others to train 650 people so far.
When it comes to shooting a live 3D feature, 21st Century 3D’s Jason Goodman said that the stereographer is the key person on the set who must have 3D experience. Steven Poster stressed that that is not adequate; that the cinematographer and director need to understand 3D as well. To this, 3D feature producer Brian Rogers added that the set designers and any other creative involved in creating the 3D experience need to be trained and understand what they are doing.
The Drivers in Convergence: Creative Theory and 2D-3D Monetization
Legend3D Founder/COO Barry Sandrew pointed out that conversion can provide the critical mass for the marketplace, especially catalog conversion including old TV shows. It will make 3D a ubiquitous product. But Greg Passmore of PassmoreLab stated; “If you want to make money, be a plumber.” Filmmakers want to engage their audience. Greg is currently converting Planet 9, and doesn’t expect it to make money. John Lowry added; “there are titles that belong in 3d, and a lot that do not.”
Barry Sandrew noted that television is less forgiving of errors in conversion. It is brighter and you can see artifacts that don’t appear in the theatre.
Keynote Speaker: Chris Cookson, President Sony Pictures Technologies
Asking the rhetorical question; does the added dimension add value, and is it worth the extra cost, he said “If we do 3D right, it won’t be a fad, it will be forever.” There are three parameters of 3D: Technical, Commercial, and Artistic
Technical / Philosophical words of wisdom
– Do 3d with intention (it must support the story)
– Allow enough time and money
– Embrace the learning curve, don’t fight it. Learn from experience or make it your mission to master it in the process. People all along the continuum will need to adjust to the new reality; from screen writers, to the digital workflow and post houses, to the audiences.
Commercial
– Market 3D intellegently and don’t overcharge.
– Conversion is not a dirty word. It can be done beautifully. The degree of control can make a more effective presentation. Just don’t do it poorly.
Artistic
Many people know how to make a 3d movies technically, but do not know how to tell a story well in 3D.
Finally, sports, games, and TV shows also matter. “3D adds a sense of topography that we didn’t have before” in golf and other sports.
The State of the 3D Exhibition Business
There is an overwhelming desire to draw conclusions on incomplete data The art, technology, and business is still rapidly evolving.
Clearly, alternative light sources are on the horizon that will make the dim-image concern obsolete. Exhibitors are building screens up to 80’ in order to provide a premium experience for the audience. They will need an adequate light source as a complement to the 3D projection.