[by Steve Koenig, Director of Industry Analysis at the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA)]

At CEA we’ve watched the 3DTV market evolving, and what we typically see with new features – and I want to underscore that 3D is a feature of TV and not a new broadcast medium – we typically see an “s-curve” of adoption. A lot of research companies report that we are going to see a linear curve of adoption, but in practice that is not the case. I think 2010 really kicked off the 3DTV market, and 2011 is going to be a little bit more up the s-curve, but 2014 is where we’ll start to reach that mass adoption portion.

Here’s why, and here’s what I think is going to happen: first of all it is really all about content, and it is going to take a few years (although we have a lot of content being generated now) for it to really hit critical mass. We’ve got more 3D games coming, more 3D movies being made available, but it is going to take a few years to hit that critical mass, where the mass market is going to pay attention and we get beyond the scope of the early adopters.

Also, I think that on the manufacturers’ side, I think that it is going to take a few years for this feature to really percolate downstream from the higher-end TVs to the middle ground, and become a feature across a number of sets across a manufacturer’s product line. Also, pricing is going to come down and make these 3D-capable sets more approachable. 

From a technology standpoint, I think that the introduction of passive technology is going to help facilitate more 3D adoption because it removes the need to buy the active shutter glasses – certainly there are trade-offs that the channel and manufacturers will articulate, but this is what our industry is all about: innovation, competition, letting the consumer decide, and I think that the more options consumers have relative to 3D technology and content, the better. By 2013 or 2014 we will hit critical mass and really see a ramp of adoption.

See the original post here: http://www.iptv-news.com/iptv_news/may_2011/cea_in_2011_were_going_to_make_some_giant_strides_towards_the_vision_of_the_connected_home